Good predictions by wrong model?
Are explaining and predicting the same? An age-old debate in philosophy of science started with Hempel & Oppenheim’s 1948 paper that equates the logical structure of predicting and explaining (saying that in effect they are the same, except that in explaining the phenomenon already happened while in prediction it hasn’t occurred). Later on it was recognized that the two are in fact very different. When it comes to statistical modeling, how are the two different? Do we model data differently when the goal is to explain than to predict? In a recent paper co-authored with Otto Koppius from Erasmus University, … Continue reading Good predictions by wrong model?