Microsoft and the financial downfall

One of the misleading features of Microsoft Office software is that it gives the user the illusion that they are in control of what’s visible and what’s hidden to readers of the files. One example is copy-pasting from an Excel sheet into a Word or Power Point. If you now double click on the embedded piece you’ll see… the Excel file! It is automatically embedded within the Word/Power Point file. A few years ago, after teaching this to MBAs, a student came the following week all excited, telling me how he just detected fraudulent reporting to his company by a … Continue reading Microsoft and the financial downfall

Sensitivity, specificity, false positive and false negative rates

I recently had an interesting discussion with a few colleagues in Korea regarding the definition of false positive and false negative rates and their relation to sensitivity and specificity. Apparently there is real confusion out there, and if you search the web you’ll find conflicting information. So let’s sort this out: Let’s assume we have a dataset of bankrupt and solvent firms. We now want to evaluate the performance of a certain model for predicting bankruptcy. Clearly here, the important class is “bankrupt”, as the consequences of misclassifying bankrupt firms as solvent are heavier than misclassifying solvent firms as bankrupt. … Continue reading Sensitivity, specificity, false positive and false negative rates